FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Romania 2–4 Bosnia-HerzegovinaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Romania
2–4
Bosnia-Herzegovina win
Bosnia-Herzegovina

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw at 76%. Bawler had Romania at 24%, the draw at 26% and Bosnia-Herzegovina at 50%. The match finished 2–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Romania win
24%
Draw
26%
Bosnia-Herzegovina win
50%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.1 – 1.7
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 2.4
From the match itself

The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals ranks as the model's highest-confidence call at 77%, driven by Bosnia-Herzegovina's 0.45 xG edge and Džeko's proven finishing—expect an open contest that clears the goal line."

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