FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Royal Charleroi SC 3–2 Cercle Brugge KSVMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Royal Charleroi SC or draw at 80%. Bawler had Royal Charleroi SC at 58%, the draw at 22% and Cercle Brugge KSV at 20%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Royal Charleroi SC win
58%
Result
Draw
22%
Cercle Brugge KSV win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 84%, backed by Charleroi's 0.64 xG edge and a combined expected-goal total of 3.30 that signals genuine attacking threat from both sides."