FT · Belgium: Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Royal Charleroi SC 2–3 Union St.-GilloiseMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Royal Charleroi SC
2–3
Union St.-Gilloise win
Union St.-Gilloise

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Union St.-Gilloise or draw at 66%. Bawler had Royal Charleroi SC at 34%, the draw at 28% and Union St.-Gilloise at 39%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Royal Charleroi SC win
34%
Draw
28%
Union St.-Gilloise win
39%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast after both sides generated nearly identical shot quality—Union at 1.38 xG, Charleroi at 1.28—signaling an evenly matched encounter despite the 5-point table gap."

More from Bawler