FT · World: International Friendly · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Russia 6–0 NamibiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Russia
6–0
Russia win
Namibia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Russia to win at 91%. Bawler had Russia at 91%, the draw at 8% and Namibia at 2%. The match finished 6–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Russia win
91%
Result
Draw
8%
Namibia win
2%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.0 – 0.3
Total 3.3
Actual
6 – 0
Total 6 (+2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.4 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced 2.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Russia to win
Pre-match: 91%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Russia's dominance in expected chances—a 2.73 xG advantage anchored by striker Serhou Guirassy's 30% share of team creation—makes the Home Win the model's 90% call."

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