FT · World: International Friendly · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Russia 3–3 NigeriaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Russia
3–3
Draw
Nigeria

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Russia or draw at 71%. Bawler had Russia at 44%, the draw at 26% and Nigeria at 29%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Russia win
44%
Draw
26%
Result
Nigeria win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself

The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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