How it finished
Russia and Nigeria drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Russia at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Russia had 17 shots (6 on target) to Nigeria's 10 (6), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Russia vs Nigeria?
Russia and Nigeria drew 3–3. Bawler's model favoured Russia at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 6. Russia had 17 shots (6 on target) to Nigeria's 10 (6), with 63% of the ball against 37%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 0.8.
What was the final score in Russia vs Nigeria?
Russia 3–3 Nigeria, played on 06 Oct 2026 in the World: International Friendly. Bawler's model had gone into it with Russia 44%, the draw 26% and Nigeria 29%.
What were the stats in Russia vs Nigeria?
Full-time: Possession 63%–37%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–0.8, Shots 17–10, Shots on target 6–6, Shots inside box 10–6, Big chances 3–1, Corners 7–3, Saves 3–3, Fouls 17–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Russia vs Nigeria?
Yes — both Russia and Nigeria scored, finishing 3–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Russia vs Nigeria right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Russia or draw 71%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 6; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.