FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 14 September 2026
San Diego FC 0–5 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 65%. Bawler had San Diego FC at 40%, the draw at 24% and Philadelphia Union at 35%. The match finished 0–5.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Diego FC win
40%
Draw
24%
Philadelphia Union win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 5
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because San Diego's 1.69 xG and Philadelphia's 1.57 xG combine for an attacking fixture that overwhelms defensive execution."