FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
San Diego FC 2–3 San Jose EarthquakesMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was San Diego FC or draw at 69%. Bawler had San Diego FC at 47%, the draw at 23% and San Jose Earthquakes at 31%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
San Diego FC win
47%
Draw
23%
San Jose Earthquakes win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.6
Total 3.6
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.4 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Landed
Medium confidence
San Diego FC or draw
Pre-match: 69%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 88% confidence because San Diego's 2.02 expected goals and 0.40 xG advantage creates a high-scoring environment against San Jose's 1.63 xG output."