FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

San Marino 0–3 AlbaniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

San Marino
0–3
Albania win
Albania

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Albania to win at 89%. Bawler had San Marino at 2%, the draw at 9% and Albania at 89%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

San Marino win
2%
Draw
9%
Albania win
89%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.4 – 3.1
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 2.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Albania to win
Pre-match: 89%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Albania's dominance in expected creation—a 2.68 xG advantage—underpins the Away Win forecast at 89% win probability."

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