FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

San Marino 0–7 FinlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 26 September 2026

San Marino
0–7
Finland win
Finland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Finland to win at 85%. Bawler had San Marino at 4%, the draw at 10% and Finland at 85%. The match finished 0–7.

Pre-match probability vs result

San Marino win
4%
Draw
10%
Finland win
85%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.7 – 3.2
Total 3.9
Actual
0 – 7
Total 7 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.0 – 3.8
From the match itself

The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Finland to win
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Finland's away win is the high-confidence call, backed by a 2.55 expected-goal gap that reflects their 3.28 xG dominance over San Marino's 0.73."

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