San Marino vs Finland prediction — UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 17:00 UK

UEFA Nations League · Sat 26 Sept · 17:00 UK
San Marino 4Draw 10Finland 85
Our call before kickoff
85%
Finland to win
Landed
3.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–7
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
82%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
47%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
74%

How it finished

Finland beat San Marino 7–0. Bawler's model had Finland in front at 85% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.9 goals; the match produced 7. San Marino had 1 shots (0 on target) to Finland's 23 (11), with 25% of the ball against 75%. Expected goals finished 0.0 to 3.8.

San MarinoFull-time statsFinland
25%Possession75%
0.0Expected goals (xG)3.8
1Shots23
0Shots on target11
0Shots inside box18
0Big chances5
0Corners4
4Saves0
14Fouls10
2Offsides2
1Yellow cards1
1Red cards0
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callFinland to win 85%Finland won (85% called)
Total goals3.97
Both teams to score47%No
Second pickOver 3.5 goals 54%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

San MarinoFinland
0.7
Goals+2.5
3.2
San MarinoFinland
0.3
Goals+0.5
0.8
San MarinoFinland
0.4
Goals+2.0
2.4

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first.

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals74%

First half — what we expected

San Marino
26%
to score before half-time
Finland
76%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 82%

Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-2.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 4San Marino 0 · Draws 0 · Finland 4

Head to head

Nov 2023San Marino 1–2 Finland
Jun 2023Finland 6–0 San Marino
Jun 2011San Marino 0–1 Finland
Nov 2010Finland 8–0 San Marino
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won San Marino vs Finland?

Finland beat San Marino 7–0. Bawler's model had Finland in front at 85% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.9 goals; the match produced 7. San Marino had 1 shots (0 on target) to Finland's 23 (11), with 25% of the ball against 75%. Expected goals finished 0.0 to 3.8.

What was the final score in San Marino vs Finland?

San Marino 0–7 Finland, played on 26 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with San Marino 4%, the draw 10% and Finland 85%.

What were the stats in San Marino vs Finland?

Full-time: Possession 25%–75%, Expected goals (xG) 0.0–3.8, Shots 1–23, Shots on target 0–11, Shots inside box 0–18, Big chances 0–5, Corners 0–4, Saves 4–0, Fouls 14–10, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 1–1, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in San Marino vs Finland?

No. It finished 0–7, so San Marino failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 47% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for San Marino vs Finland right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Finland to win 85%, it finished Finland won (85% called); Total goals — we said 3.9, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 47%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 3.5 goals 54%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

All fixtures & results →San Marino form →Finland form →