FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
SC Freiburg 5–0 Borussia MönchengladbachMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg or draw at 77%. Bawler had SC Freiburg at 52%, the draw at 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 23%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Freiburg win
52%
Result
Draw
25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Freiburg's 0.67 expected-goal advantage and Grifo's creative threat make Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78% call, with both sides generating enough attacking quality to breach defences."