FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Schalke 04 0–0 SV ElversbergMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Schalke 04 or draw at 64%. Bawler had Schalke 04 at 40%, the draw at 24% and SV Elversberg at 36%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Schalke 04 win
40%
Draw
24%
Result
SV Elversberg win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 3.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Schalke's 0.38 expected-goals edge and 46% win probability underpin the model's 82% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals, reflecting both sides' attacking intent in a fixture where combined xG reaches 3.13."