FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 04 October 2026

SD Noja 1–1 RibadesellaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was SD Noja or draw at 71%. Bawler had SD Noja at 46%, the draw at 26% and Ribadesella at 29%. The match finished 1–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

SD Noja win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Ribadesella win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
SD Noja or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 78% probability, driven by Noja's 0.43 xG advantage and superior shot-creation threat in this Copa del Rey clash."

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