FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 3–1 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Seattle Sounders FC or draw at 73%. Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 49%, the draw at 24% and Minnesota United FC at 27%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Seattle Sounders FC win
49%
Result
Draw
24%
Minnesota United FC win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Seattle Sounders FC or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands an 82% forecast because Seattle's 1.82 xG and Minnesota's 1.32 xG gap suggests a high-volume attacking display from the home side."