FT · World: International Friendly · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Seychelles 0–3 Sri LankaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026

Seychelles
0–3
Sri Lanka win
Sri Lanka

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Sri Lanka or draw at 71%. Bawler had Seychelles at 29%, the draw at 23% and Sri Lanka at 48%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Seychelles win
29%
Draw
23%
Sri Lanka win
48%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 2.0
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
Sri Lanka or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 87% confidence, driven by Sri Lanka's 0.46 xG advantage and combined expected output of 3.54 goals."

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