FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Seychelles 0–2 Sri LankaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 30 September 2026

Seychelles
0–2
Sri Lanka win
Sri Lanka

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Sri Lanka or draw at 74%. Bawler had Seychelles at 26%, the draw at 22% and Sri Lanka at 52%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Seychelles win
26%
Draw
22%
Sri Lanka win
52%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 2.1
Total 3.6
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.6 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
Sri Lanka to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast, with Sri Lanka's 0.69 expected-goal advantage and 53% win probability signaling the away side will create enough chances to push the total past the threshold."

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