FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Sheffield United 3–2 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sheffield United or draw at 80%. Bawler had Sheffield United at 56%, the draw at 24% and Bolton Wanderers at 20%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sheffield United win
56%
Result
Draw
24%
Bolton Wanderers win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.