FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026

SK Brann 3–2 PAOKMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026

SK Brann
3–2
SK Brann win
PAOK

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was SK Brann or draw at 67%. Bawler had SK Brann at 42%, the draw at 26% and PAOK at 33%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

SK Brann win
42%
Result
Draw
26%
PAOK win
33%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, grounded in a combined 3.00 expected goals and SK Brann's 9-point edge in win probability that suggests attacking intent from the home side."

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