FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Slavia Prague 2–3 LensMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 69%. Bawler had Slavia Prague at 31%, the draw at 24% and Lens at 45%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Slavia Prague win
31%
Draw
24%
Lens win
45%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 84%, driven by Lens's 0.33 xG advantage and 45% win probability suggesting they'll generate enough attacking threat to push this fixture beyond a single goal."