FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Slovakia 2–1 KazakhstanMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Slovakia
2–1
Slovakia win
Kazakhstan

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Slovakia to win at 63%. Bawler had Slovakia at 63%, the draw at 22% and Kazakhstan at 15%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Slovakia win
63%
Result
Draw
22%
Kazakhstan win
15%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 0.8
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.2
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Slovakia to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Slovakia's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.25 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the high-confidence forecast at 66% probability."

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