FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Slovenia 2–0 North MacedoniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Slovenia
2–0
Slovenia win
North Macedonia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Slovenia or draw at 84%. Bawler had Slovenia at 58%, the draw at 25% and North Macedonia at 16%. The match finished 2–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Slovenia win
58%
Result
Draw
25%
North Macedonia win
16%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 0.8
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Slovenia or draw
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Slovenia's home advantage pairs with a dominant 0.99 xG edge to make a Home Win the 60% forecast."

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