FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Solomon Islands 3–3 VanuatuMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 24 September 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Vanuatu or draw at 79%. Bawler had Solomon Islands at 21%, the draw at 21% and Vanuatu at 57%. The match finished 3–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Solomon Islands win
21%
Draw
21%
Result
Vanuatu win
57%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 2.2
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 3
Total 6 (+2.5 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, driven by Vanuatu's 0.91 xG advantage and dominant 57% win probability that should generate sustained attacking pressure."

More from Bawler