World: World CupSunday 28 Jun, 19:00 UTC

South Africa vCanada

Most likely scoreline
11
13% of the time · 2.47 goals expected
South Africa 26%Draw 33%Canada 41%
Strongest call
Canada or draw
76%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Canada's xG advantage (1.40 to 1.08) and Davies-David creative duo will consistently test South Africa's Tau and Zwane in a free-flowing encounter.

How we get there
South AfricastepCanada
1.08Base xG · rolling 26-match1.39
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.08Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.39
Most likely outcomes
Canada or draw
76%
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

South Africa average 2.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Canada average 5.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
12
8
4
1
1
9
13
9
4
1
2
5
7
5
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
4
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Jonathan David
Canada · Juventus
46%
To score
Lyle Foster
South Africa · Burnley
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

South Africa vs Canada — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between South Africa and Canada — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: South Africa 26% · draw 33% · Canada 41%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
South Africa 01 Canada
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.