FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Sporting CP 3–1 GalatasarayMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP to win at 65%. Bawler had Sporting CP at 65%, the draw at 20% and Galatasaray at 15%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sporting CP win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Galatasaray win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's home-win forecast rests on a commanding 1.25 xG advantage, with striker Viktor Gyökeres driving nearly a third of their attacking output against an opponent generating just 1.04 expected goals."