FT · Spain: Copa del Rey · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Sporting de Alcázar 1–0 CP TalayuelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 04 October 2026

Sporting de Alcázar
1–0
Sporting de Alcázar win
CP Talayuela

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Sporting de Alcázar or draw at 72%. Bawler had Sporting de Alcázar at 47%, the draw at 25% and CP Talayuela at 28%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Sporting de Alcázar win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
CP Talayuela win
28%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)

The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Sporting de Alcázar or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 78% probability because Sporting de Alcázar's 1.69 expected goals outweighs Talayuela's 1.20, suggesting a dynamic attacking contest on home soil."

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