FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 4–2 Minnesota United FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 73%. Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 47%, the draw at 25% and Minnesota United FC at 27%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Louis CITY SC win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
Minnesota United FC win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 79%, driven by St. Louis's 0.44 xG advantage and a combined 2.94 expected goals that favors an open, goal-heavy contest."