FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Stade Rennais 3–2 Le MansMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Stade Rennais to win at 64%. Bawler had Stade Rennais at 64%, the draw at 20% and Le Mans at 16%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stade Rennais win
64%
Result
Draw
20%
Le Mans win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Stade Rennais to win
Pre-match: 64%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.