FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Stevenage 0–3 ReadingMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026

Stevenage
0–3
Reading win
Reading

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Stevenage or draw at 69%. Bawler had Stevenage at 43%, the draw at 26% and Reading at 31%. The match finished 0–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Stevenage win
43%
Draw
26%
Reading win
31%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.7
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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