Stevenage vs Reading prediction — EFL Cup · Tue 25 Aug · 19:45 UK

EFL Cup · Tue 25 Aug · 19:45 UK
Stevenage 43Draw 26Reading 31
Our call before kickoff
69%
Stevenage or draw
Missed
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 0–3
Both teams score (before kick-off)
57%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
53%

How it finished

Reading beat Stevenage 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Stevenage at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Reading 31%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Stevenage had 13 shots (3 on target) to Reading's 10 (5), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.7.

StevenageFull-time statsReading
57%Possession43%
0.7Expected goals (xG)1.7
13Shots10
3Shots on target5
8Shots inside box8
3Big chances4
5Corners5
2Saves4
6Fouls13
2Offsides1
2Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callStevenage or draw 69%Reading won (31% called)
Total goals2.83
Both teams to score57%No
Graded pickOver 1.5 goals 77%Landed
Second pickOver 2.5 goals 53%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

StevenageReading
1.5
Goals+0.3
1.3

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Stevenage to score79%
Over 1.5 goals77%
Reading to score72%
Under 3.5 goals69%

No first-half forecast for this fixture.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Stevenage 1 · Draws 2 · Reading 2

Head to head

Mar 2026Stevenage 1–0 Reading
Nov 2025Reading 1–0 Stevenage
Mar 2025Reading 1–1 Stevenage
Nov 2024Stevenage 1–1 Reading
Feb 2024Stevenage 0–1 Reading
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Stevenage vs Reading?

Reading beat Stevenage 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Stevenage at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Reading 31%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Stevenage had 13 shots (3 on target) to Reading's 10 (5), with 57% of the ball against 43%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.7.

What was the final score in Stevenage vs Reading?

Stevenage 0–3 Reading, played on 25 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Stevenage 43%, the draw 26% and Reading 31%.

What were the stats in Stevenage vs Reading?

Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.7, Shots 13–10, Shots on target 3–5, Shots inside box 8–8, Big chances 3–4, Corners 5–5, Saves 2–4, Fouls 6–13, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 2–2.

Did both teams score in Stevenage vs Reading?

No. It finished 0–3, so Stevenage failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Stevenage vs Reading right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Stevenage or draw 69%, it finished Reading won (31% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Stevenage
All fixtures & results →Stevenage form →Reading form →