FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Stoke City 2–1 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Sheffield United or draw at 66%. Bawler had Stoke City at 34%, the draw at 26% and Sheffield United at 40%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Stoke City win
34%
Result
Draw
26%
Sheffield United win
40%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 77% confidence because Sheffield United's 1.54 xG combined with Stoke City's 1.28 suggests both sides will create enough chances to breach the goal line."