FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Sunderland 1–0 Hull CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sunderland to win at 67%. Bawler had Sunderland at 67%, the draw at 20% and Hull City at 13%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sunderland win
67%
Result
Draw
20%
Hull City win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 0.8
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sunderland to win
Pre-match: 67%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sunderland's home win is the high-confidence forecast at 67% probability, built on a dominant 1.30 expected-goals advantage and creator Enzo Le Fée's 14% share of team attacking output."