FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
SV Elversberg 1–2 Bayern MunichMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 73%. Bawler had SV Elversberg at 12%, the draw at 16% and Bayern Munich at 73%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
SV Elversberg win
12%
Draw
16%
Bayern Munich win
73%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.9
Total 4.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bayern Munich's away win is the high-confidence call at 73%, backed by a decisive 1.74 xG advantage that reflects superior shot-creation over the hosts' 1.12 expected goals."