FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Sweden 2–1 RomaniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Sweden
2–1
Sweden win
Romania

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Sweden to win at 63%. Bawler had Sweden at 63%, the draw at 20% and Romania at 17%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Sweden win
63%
Result
Draw
20%
Romania win
17%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.4 – 1.2
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Sweden to win
Pre-match: 63%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Sweden's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.19 expected-goals advantage, with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres accounting for over a third of their attacking threat."

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