World: World CupWednesday 24 Jun, 19:00 UTC

Switzerland vCanada

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.83 goals expected
Switzerland 49%Draw 29%Canada 22%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Switzerland's 1.72 xG and Canada's 1.11 xG combine for a 2.83 total that favors a multi-goal affair despite Canada's creator Alphonso Davies threading dangerous chances.

How we get there
SwitzerlandstepCanada
1.72Base xG · rolling 26-match1.11
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.72Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.11
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Canada to win
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Switzerland average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Canada average 5.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
1
1
10
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
6
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Jonathan David
Canada · Juventus
46%
To score
Breel Embolo
Switzerland · Rennes
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Switzerland vs Canada — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Switzerland and Canada — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Switzerland 49% · draw 29% · Canada 22%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Switzerland 21 Canada
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.