FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 28 September 2026

Tajikistan 2–4 PalestineMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Tajikistan
2–4
Palestine win
Palestine

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Tajikistan or draw at 83%. Bawler had Tajikistan at 59%, the draw at 24% and Palestine at 17%. The match finished 2–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Tajikistan win
59%
Draw
24%
Palestine win
17%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 3.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Tajikistan or draw
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Tajikistan's home-win prediction rests on a decisive 1.01 expected-goals advantage, with the model favoring the hosts at 60% win probability despite Palestine's compact approach."

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