Our forecast for this match.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Ranked by our probability, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 73%
Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Bawler's model rates this match: Tavernes de la Valldigna are favoured (46% win probability vs 29% for Maracena, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Tavernes de la Valldigna 1-1 Maracena (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.9.
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Tavernes de la Valldigna 46%, the draw 26% and Maracena 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on Tavernes de la Valldigna expecting 1.66 goals and Maracena 1.28.
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 56%.