FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Toronto FC 2–1 Nashville SCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Nashville SC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Toronto FC at 28%, the draw at 28% and Nashville SC at 44%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Toronto FC win
28%
Result
Draw
28%
Nashville SC win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.4
Total 2.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 72% call, grounded in Nashville's 1.44 xG and Hany Mukhtar's creative dominance offsetting Toronto's defensive home advantage."