FT · EUROPE: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Trabzonspor 0–1 FerencvarosMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ferencvaros or draw at 66%. Bawler had Trabzonspor at 34%, the draw at 28% and Ferencvaros at 38%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
34%
Draw
28%
Ferencvaros win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.