FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Trabzonspor 5–0 GenclerbirligiMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Trabzonspor to win at 60%. Bawler had Trabzonspor at 60%, the draw at 23% and Genclerbirligi at 18%. The match finished 5–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Trabzonspor win
60%
Result
Draw
23%
Genclerbirligi win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.0
Total 3.0
Actual
5 – 0
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Trabzonspor or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Trabzonspor's home advantage and 0.99 expected-goals edge make Trabzonspor or draw (Trabzonspor win or draw) the model's high-confidence call at 82%, with the hosts favored to control possession and limit Genclerbirligi's attacking chances."