FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Friday, 25 September 2026

Türkiye 0–1 FranceMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 25 September 2026

Türkiye
0–1
France win
France

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was France or draw at 79%. Bawler had Türkiye at 21%, the draw at 21% and France at 58%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Türkiye win
21%
Draw
21%
France win
58%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 2.2
Total 3.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.5 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 86%, backed by France's 0.88 expected-goal advantage and Mbappé and Thuram's combined 38% of their team's attacking threat."

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