FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 28 September 2026

Türkiye 1–4 ItalyMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026

Türkiye
1–4
Italy win
Italy

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Türkiye or draw at 73%. Bawler had Türkiye at 47%, the draw at 25% and Italy at 27%. The match finished 1–4.

Pre-match probability vs result

Türkiye win
47%
Draw
25%
Italy win
27%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Türkiye or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, anchored by Türkiye's 0.62 xG advantage and a combined expected-goal total of 2.96 that favors an open match."

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