How it finished
Italy beat Türkiye 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Türkiye at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Italy 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Türkiye had 15 shots (3 on target) to Italy's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Türkiye vs Italy?
Italy beat Türkiye 4–1. Bawler's model favoured Türkiye at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Italy 27%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. Türkiye had 15 shots (3 on target) to Italy's 14 (8), with 54% of the ball against 46%.
What was the final score in Türkiye vs Italy?
Türkiye 1–4 Italy, played on 28 Sept 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Türkiye 47%, the draw 25% and Italy 27%.
What were the stats in Türkiye vs Italy?
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Shots 15–14, Shots on target 3–8, Corners 6–2, Saves 4–2, Fouls 12–21, Offsides 1–2, Yellow cards 3–0.
Did both teams score in Türkiye vs Italy?
Yes — both Türkiye and Italy scored, finishing 1–4. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Türkiye vs Italy right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Türkiye or draw 73%, it finished Italy won (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.