FT · World: International Friendly · Monday, 05 October 2026

Uganda 0–0 Congo DRMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Congo DR or draw at 72%. Bawler had Uganda at 28%, the draw at 30% and Congo DR at 43%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Uganda win
28%
Draw
30%
Result
Congo DR win
43%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.0 – 1.3
Total 2.3
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.3 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Congo DR or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 20%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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