FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

Ukraine 1–2 HungaryMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

Ukraine
1–2
Hungary win
Hungary

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Hungary or draw at 66%. Bawler had Ukraine at 34%, the draw at 29% and Hungary at 37%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Ukraine win
34%
Draw
29%
Hungary win
37%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.2 – 1.3
Total 2.5
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.3
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 2.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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