How it finished
Hungary beat Ukraine 2–1. Bawler's model had Hungary in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Ukraine had 17 shots (2 on target) to Hungary's 10 (4), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.3, so Ukraine created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 66%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Ukraine vs Hungary?
Hungary beat Ukraine 2–1. Bawler's model had Hungary in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.5 goals and the match produced 3. Ukraine had 17 shots (2 on target) to Hungary's 10 (4), with 53% of the ball against 47%. On expected goals it was 1.7 to 1.3, so Ukraine created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Ukraine vs Hungary?
Ukraine 1–2 Hungary, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Ukraine 34%, the draw 29% and Hungary 37%.
What were the stats in Ukraine vs Hungary?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.3, Shots 17–10, Shots on target 2–4, Shots inside box 12–4, Big chances 2–2, Corners 5–4, Saves 2–1, Fouls 10–13, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in Ukraine vs Hungary?
Yes — both Ukraine and Hungary scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 50% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Ukraine vs Hungary right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Hungary or draw 66%, it finished Hungary won (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 50%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 70%, it finished Landed.