FT · World: International Friendly · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

United States 1–0 CanadaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 07 October 2026

United States
1–0
United States win
Canada

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was United States or draw at 77%. Bawler had United States at 52%, the draw at 24% and Canada at 23%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

United States win
52%
Result
Draw
24%
Canada win
23%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
United States to win
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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