FT · World: International Friendly · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Uzbekistan 4–1 SyriaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 01 October 2026

Uzbekistan
4–1
Uzbekistan win
Syria

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Uzbekistan or draw at 71%. Bawler had Uzbekistan at 44%, the draw at 26% and Syria at 29%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Uzbekistan win
44%
Result
Draw
26%
Syria win
29%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)

The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Uzbekistan's 0.70 expected-goals advantage and Shomurodov's 22% share of team creation power underpins an 85% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals in this friendly."

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