FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 11 September 2026
Venezia 2–4 FiorentinaMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 11 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fiorentina or draw at 64%. Bawler had Venezia at 36%, the draw at 27% and Fiorentina at 37%. The match finished 2–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Venezia win
36%
Draw
27%
Fiorentina win
37%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 4
Total 6 (+3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"With Fiorentina sitting outside any active competition and Venezia operating without similar constraints, the model expects a competitive fixture where Moise Kean's 26% of team xG will be tested against a narrow 1.40 xG gap, driving Over 1.5 Goals to 76% as the high-confidence call."