FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

VfB Stuttgart 3–1 Viking FKMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

VfB Stuttgart
3–1
VfB Stuttgart win
Viking FK

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 80%. Bawler had VfB Stuttgart at 57%, the draw at 23% and Viking FK at 20%. The match finished 3–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

VfB Stuttgart win
57%
Result
Draw
23%
Viking FK win
20%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.0 – 1.1
Total 3.2
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.7
From the match itself

The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 82%, backed by Stuttgart's 0.89 xG advantage and their striker Deniz Undav accounting for over a quarter of the team's attacking threat."

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